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Just in case y’all forget, the PGA Tour does have an event this week. The 2023 RBC Canadian Open tees off Thursday, June 8 at the Oakdale Golf & Country Club in Toronto, Ontario.
I know it’s not really the focus of golf currently. But, we true golf fans are going to ignore the PGA-LIV Tour merger for the weekend. Honestly, I’m not even sure I count as a “true golf fan” but the PGA Tour is one of my favorite things to do.
Most of my 2023 RBC Canadian Open bets were made earlier this week. However, I’m circling back to add a golfer to my outright and placement bets. Plus, I’ll take a few shots at RBC Canadian Open head-to-heads.
RBC Canadian Open Tournament Bets
Justin Rose (+116) > Cameron Young
Unfortunately, due to OutKick’s partnership with DraftKings Sportsbook, I cannot tell you exactly where to find this matchup. Yet I’m sure Googling “Justin Rose vs. Cameron Young” would point you in the right direction.
Anyhow, Rose is 1st in my RBC Canadian Open power rankings, courtesy of FantasyNational.com, and almost made my card. Young on the other hand is 9th in my Canadian Open power rankings.
Furthermore, Rose rank ahead of Young in my key stat model over their last 36 rounds (Rose is 5th and Young is 10th). The only defense Oakdale has is its long rough so accuracy off-the-tee is important.
Rose ranks 9th in this field for Good Drives Gained, which blends driving accuracy with distance, and Young is 68th. There are going to be 12 or 13 Par 4s at Oakdale this weekend. Rose is 2nd in Par 4 scoring and Young is 26th.
Also, Rose is also in much better form and played better at last year’s RBC Canadian Open. Young has missed the cut in two of his last six starts. He finished T51 (twice) and T59 in two others. Rose has finished no worse than 36 in his last six starts.
This is going to be a “birdie-fest” and you need to hit putts at birdie-fests. Over the last 24 rounds, Rose is 5th in Strokes Gained (SG): Putting on Bent grass, which is the grass of Oakdale’s greens. Young is 136th in this metric.
BET 0.75 units (u) on Justin Rose (+116) over Cameron Young
Adam Svensson (+105) > Matt Kuchar at DraftKings
For the record, Svensson is a native Canadian but that isn’t why I’m betting on him. My model at FantasyNational.com power ranks Svensson as 18th entering the Canadian Open and Kuchar is 31st.
There are several short Par 4s at Oakdale within 350-450 yards. Svensson is 25th in Par 4 Efficiency (EFF): 350-400 yards out and 18th in Par 4 EFF: 400-450. While Kuchar is 69th in Par 4 EFF: 350-400 and 46th from 400-450.
Oakdale is a positional course with an emphasis on approach (APP) play. Svensson is 27th in SG: Ball striking (BS) and 37th in SG: APP. Kuchar is 73rd in SG: BS and 80th in SG: APP over the last 36 rounds.
The 2023 RBC Canadian Open should be a birdie-fest. Svensson is 14th in Birdies-or-Better (BoB) Gained and Kuchar is 28th in BoB Gained. Svennson out-ranks Kuchar in SG: Putting on Bent over the last 24 rounds (12th vs. 21st).
Lastly, Kuchar is the bigger name but his last win on the PGA Tour was the 2019 Sony Open. Whereas Svensson won the 2022 RSM Classic in this PGA Tour 2022-23 wraparound season.
BET 0.75u on Adam Svensson (+105) over Matt Kuchar at DraftKings
Adding Shane Lowry to my 2023 RBC Canadian Open betting card
This is a FOMO bet. Lowry almost made my RBC Canadian Open bet slip initially. After hearing all my Twitter golf betting buddies give out Lowry, I want a piece of the Irishman.
Lowry has the 8th-best odds to win the Canadian Open and he is 5th in my power rankings. Lowry is 6th in this field for total SG at comp courses to Oakdale and 4th in my key stat model.
Over his last 36 rounds, Lowry is 1st in both SG: APP and Greens-in-Regulation Gained, 3rd in Good Drives Gained, and 4th in SG: BS. Lowry finished T10 at last year’s RBC Canadian Open, T2 in 2019, and T12 in 2018.
The biggest knock to Lowry’s chances at the Canadian Open is how poorly he putts. That’s why I’m sprinkling on Lowry’s outright odds to win this event and hitting his top-20 ticket harder.
BET 0.25u on S. Lowry to win (+2000) & 0.75u to place in the top-20 (+100)
Check out the Hot Links golf gambling show hosted by Geoff Clark on the OutKick Bets podcast feed. New episodes drop Tuesdays for most full-field PGA Tour events in the 2022-23 season
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