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We are not patient people. I mean, you really need to be as a sports bettor. Sure, there are stories of bettors making a giant amount of money on some random parlay. However, if you want to be serious about winning money, you really need to be patient. Here’s my example for you: this baseball season, I was up about 70 units (all shared on Outkick). If you’re a $100 bettor, you’re only up $7,000 – which is great – but not enough to be life-changing. What I’m saying is that this is a grind. You need patience. With these plays, we don’t need patience because the outcome is going to happen seconds into the Super Bowl.
We are going to start with the first play for the Super Bowl. I went back and looked at every first play of the first drive for both teams. Here is what I found. The Chiefs on the year have had 14 rush plays as their first play of the season over the course of their 19 games. In the playoffs, they’ve done rushes for both of their playoff games. One of the games they went with a pass in their first offensive play was when they were already down in the game. For the Eagles, they were fairly consistent as well – most of their games started with a pass play. In 12 of their games, including one playoff game, they started with a pass play. I’d argue a few more started as pass plays too but resulted in rushes with Jalen Hurts, so you’re more looking at the Chiefs playing for a run as their first play and the Eagles a pass as theirs.
The next level of this is reviewing what the opponents are doing against these teams. If there is consistency there, we can try and predict what makes the most sense. The Chiefs defense has not been able to see much consistency in first plays from their opponents. They’ve seen nine rushes against them and 10 pass plays. In the playoffs, they’ve faced only pass plays from opponents in their first two games. The Eagles seem to face mostly rushes as their first play from an opponent. In 13 of their games this season, they’ve faced opponents handing the ball off. The other six are passing plays. In the playoffs it has been one rush, and one pass.
So, there are a few trends we see here: the Eagles seem to pass first, and there is a slight edge to that of opponent’s game plans against the Chiefs. The line on their first offensive play is -120 for pass. I think that is the way to go here. For the Chiefs we see they want to run the ball first. The only mention I’d make about this is that the Chiefs ran the ball in one Super Bowl and passed first in their more recent one. I think the best bet is still a rush as the 1st play at -130. My gut actually tells me otherwise, but I think the data supports too much that the first play will be a rush.
The last play on this one that I’ll make is net yards gained on the 1st offensive play. I am taking under 3.5 at -105. Here’s my thinking. If it is a Chiefs rush, I’d expect the Eagles to be prepared for that and it is a short gain – if any. If the Eagles get the ball first and make a pass attempt, then they need a completion. Same with the Chiefs. If the Eagles run the ball, I do expect them to get 4+ yards. This boils down to this: if it is a pass, you need a completion or a penalty, too. If it is a run you need at least four yards. I’m going to play the under I think too much needs to go right for this to be a win.
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