Bet New York, Bet New York, Bet: The Knicks Aren't Losing Game 2 To the Pacers

The New York Knicks lost another man in their 121-117 Game 1 Eastern Conference semifinal win against the Indiana Pacers on Monday in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. Oft-injured Knicks big Mitchell Robinson will reportedly miss the next 6-8 weeks with a stress fracture in his ankle. Robinson's absence adds to the pile for New York's injury report, which includes All-Star PF Julius Randle and sharpshooting forward Bojan Bogdanovic. 

However, the injuries to Randle, Bogdanovic, and Robinson are causing the betting market to overcorrect. Sure, these absences hurt NYK's chances of beating Indy in this series. Also, it almost nixes all hope from the Knicks faithful of upsetting the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals, should New York make it. Yet, Game 2 is at Madison Square Garden and the Knicks has the best player in the series. 

Indiana Pacers At New York Knicks Game 2 Betting Odds (FanDuel) 

• Moneyline: Indiana (+158) | New York (-188)
• Spread: Pacers +4.5 (-108) | KNICKS -4.5 (-112)
• Total, 219: Over (-110) | Under (-110)

Knicks All-Star PG Jalen Brunson is averaging an NBA-best 36.6 points per game this postseason. Because of New York's injuries, Brunson has the highest usage rate in these playoffs. In Game 1, Brunson dominated the Pacers. He scored a game-high 43 points on 53.8% shooting and 14 for 14 from the foul line. Plus, Indiana doesn't have anyone long enough or athletic enough to stop Brunson's craftiness. 

New York Knicks PG Jalen Brunson shoots a fadeaway over Indiana Pacers SG Andrew Nembhard in Game 1 of the second round in the 2024 NBA Playoffs at Madison Square Garden. (Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)

Furthermore, Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau's coaching method has prepared his team for these grueling playoff slug-fests. Thibodeau's detractors knock him for asking too much from his starters in the regular season and his teams losing steam in the postseason. My counterpoint is the Knicks are tougher and have better stamina due to the regular-season workload. 

You cannot just point to the current injuries and say, "See Thibs is wearing his guys down". Again, Robinson is always hurt. Randle dislocated his shoulder Jan. 27 attacking the hoop when Miami Heat forward Jaime Jacquez tried to take a charge. I.e. it's a freak play, not "durability-related". Bogdanovic suffered season-ending wrist and ankle injuries after colliding with Philadelphia 76ers SF Kelly Oubre Jr. for a loose ball in the first round of the NBA playoffs. 

Back to my "overcorrection" point, the market is all over the Pacers for Game 2. According to the Yahoo! Sports app and Pregame.com, roughly two-thirds of the bets are on Indiana's spread as of 1:45 p.m. ET Wednesday. Some of that is the ole "zig-zag" handicapping angle for NBA playoff games where you bet the opposite of what happened in the previous game. 

READ: Knicks Josh Hart Comments About Not Being An Indiana Guy Are Resurfacing Just In Time For Series With Pacers

Another aspect of the public betting on the Pacers here is that if it weren't for Brunson's brilliance and poor officiating, Indiana would be up 1-0 in this series. Indy held a 9-point lead in Game 1 and led by five points entering the fourth quarter. But, there's a saying in sports betting: "Public ‘dogs get slaughtered". It's rare for the public to bet an underdog and casual sports bettors usually lose on this racket. 

The Knicks out-performed the Pacers in three of the "four factors" in Game 1. New York only lost the turnover battle. That's not a sustainable way for Indiana to win because Brunson usually protects the ball well and the Pacers don't force many turnovers. The emergence of Knicks SF Josh Hart might give them the best two players in this series. Hart is averaging 17.9 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 5.0 assists in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. 

Both teams have matchups they can exploit offensively, but New York can get stops whereas Indy's can't. The Knicks were seventh in offensive rating and 10th defensively during the regular season. The Pacers were second in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive rating. Finally, both teams might score a lot of points, but New York will cover the spread with its defense. 

BET 1.12 units (u) on the Knicks -4.5 (-112) in Game 2 at FanDuel. New York is playable up to -5.5. 

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PS Player Prop: Indiana Pacers PG T.J. McConnell UNDER 10.5 points 

This line is ridiculous, LOL. I mean come on. McConnell isn't out there for his offense. He's one of the better on-ball defenders in the NBA. Indiana's opponents beg McConnell to shoot because his jumper is broken. Granted, he scores 10.7 points per game (PPG) this postseason. That's up from 10.2 PPG in the regular season at 55.6% from the field and 40.9% from behind the arc. 

Indiana Pacers PG T.J. McConnell passes the ball in traffic against the New York Knicks during the 2024 NBA Playoffs at Madison Square Garden. (Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)

That 3-point rate is misleading because McConnell only shot 0.6 threes per game. In the playoffs, he is 23.1% from deep. McConnell plays 18.6 minutes and averages 0.9 free throw attempts per game. He scored 20 points in Game 6 vs. the Milwaukee Bucks last round and 18 in Game 1 vs. the Knicks. Yet, he scored 7.0 PPG in Games 1-3 vs. the Bucks and scored less than 11 points in 41 of his 71 regular-season games. 

BET 0.46u on Pacers PG T.J. McConnell UNDER 10.5 points to profit 0.4u at FanDuel (-115) 

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