Guaranteed Winners For All 3 NBA Playoffs Games Friday

Home teams continue to dominate in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. Entering Friday, home teams are 20-5 overall and 15-9 vs. the spread this postseason, including the play-in tourney. The Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers won their Game 3's at home Thursday against the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks, respectively. Yet, home-court didn't help the Los Angeles Lakers, whose season is on the brink after losing to the Denver Nuggets Thursday. 

Unfortunately, I've been on and off with my NBA betting recently. Since April 19th, I'm 10-12 and -0.5 unit (u) in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. That said, I'm not far removed from a 15-game winning streak in the Association and my "closing line value" (CLV) is +2.0% over the last week, so I'm seeing it right. Let's start another streak Friday with bets in Bucks-Pacers, Clippers-Mavericks, and Timberwolves-Suns. 

NBA Playoffs 2024 Best Bets: April 26th 

The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers (-6), 5:30 p.m. ET

Bucks two-time NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo will miss his 3rd game in this series Friday. Without Giannis, Milwaukee has no one to guard Pacers PF Pascal Siakam, who is absolutely cooking the Bucks. Siakam is averaging a series-best 36.5 points per game (PPG) on 64.6% shooting and 12.0 rebounds. 

Milwaukee will live or die with the 3-ball because it’s missing Giannis and could be without SF Khris Middleton, who is "questionable" for Friday. The Pacers are the last team you want to face in a 3-point shootout. During the regular season, they were +3.1 in 3-pointers made per game. Indy is averaging 14 more wide-open 3-point shots per game (29.0-15.0), per NBA's tracking data. 

Indiana Pacers PF Pascal Siakam shoots the ball during the game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks during Game 2 of the 1st round in the 2024 NBA Playoffs Fiserv Forum Center in Wisconsin. (Photo by Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images).

Sometimes this can be a little wonky, but the eye test supports these stats. The Bucks mopped the Pacers 109-94 in Game 1 despite Indy getting 15 more wide-open 3-point looks in that game. I sourced this information when giving out the Pacers to win Game 2. The Pacers broke out of their shooting slumber Tuesday and they will go off at home in Game 3. 

Bet 1.1u on the Pacers -6 (-110) on DraftKings. I'll bet Indiana up to -7 in Game 3. 

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UNDER 213 in Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks, 7 p.m. ET

I’m an idiot for even looking at this game. No team has cost me more money over the last five seasons than the Clippers. I hate their guts. Once it was announced Kawhi Leonard would make his series debut Tuesday, LAC went from slight home underdogs to slight favorites right before tip-off. Of course, the Clippers no-showed and lost Game 2, 96-93. But, what pisses me off even more is that I didn’t even consider betting the total. 

Los Angeles Clippers wing Paul George tries to steal the ball from Dallas Mavericks All-Star Luka Doncic during Game 2 of the 1st round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Crypto.com Arena. (Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports)

Through the 1st two games of this series, Clippers-Mavericks has a 90.1 pace, and both went Under the total. The average pace during the NBA regular season was 98.5. That slow pace helps defenses set up. These teams are tied for 14th (out of 16 playoff teams) in wide-open 3-point shots per game. Since 2021, the Clippers-Mavericks are 3-10 Over/Under (O/U) with a -9.6 O/U differential. 

Finally, styles make fights and this feels like a low-scoring affair. There will be a lot of "one-and-done" possessions because neither team crashes the glass. The Mavericks are 20th in second-chance PPG and the Clippers are 24th. Dallas is 10th in defensive FT/FGA rate and Los Angeles is 9th. Since both teams protect the ball, I’m not expecting easy points off of turnovers Friday. 

Bet 1.1u on UNDER 213 in Clippers-Mavericks (-110) at FanDuel. The UNDER is playable down to 211. 

• Wait until closer to tip-off before betting this Under in hopes of getting a better number. Usually, the public likes to bet Over for primetime games, so maybe this total increases throughout the day.

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Minnesota Timberwolves (+5) at Phoenix Suns, 10:30 p.m. ET

There’s a tax on Phoenix because the market doesn’t think the Suns will get swept, and they’ll fight like hell to make this series 2-1. You can tell because there’s been a 7-point swing in this line now that the series is in Phoenix. The Timberwolves were -2.5 and -3 favorites at home for Games 1 and 2. This is too big of an overreaction. 

Minnesota is beating Phoenix in all "four factors" in this series. T-Wolves All-Star SG Anthony Edwards has been the best player in this series thus far and C Rudy Gobert is dominating the paint. The Timberwolves are out-scoring the Suns 50.0-37.0 in paint PPG this series. 

Furthermore, Phoenix is having difficulty getting looks without a legitimate point guard. Minnesota was the best defense in the NBA during the regular season and ranked 6th in defensive turnover rate. The T-Wolves are scoring 16.5 more PPG off turnovers in this series (27.0-10.5).

Timberwolves SG Anthony Edwards dribbles around Phoenix Suns SG Bradley Beal in Game 2 of the first round for the 2024 NBA playoffs at Target Center in Minnesota. (Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports)

The Suns don’t have any "glue guys". Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, SG Bradley Beal, and C Jusuf Nurkic have the same skill sets. All of them are good scorers and mediocre to bad defenders. The Timberwolves have guys willing to do the dirty work. Minnesota SF Jaden McDaniels is sticking to Booker like stink on poop. 

Beal cannot do anything with Edwards defending him. Because of Gobert, it would be dumb for Phoenix to play through Nurkic. Durant should be able to cook T-Wolves All-Star big Karl-Anthony Towns (KAT). However, if KAT makes KD work on defense, it could hurt Durant’s offense. Simply put, the Timberwolves have more ways to win than the Suns.

Bet 1.68u on the Timberwolves +5 (-112) at DraftKings. Minnesota is bet-able down to +3.5. 

• For the record, this is my biggest bet in the 2024 NBA Playoffs Friday. I'm betting the T-Wolves +5 to win 1.5u.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.