Cardinals Will Be Winning After Five Against Sox

White Sox vs. Cardinals, 2:25 ET

There are certain teams that you tend to avoid as a sports bettor. At times, you may think one team has your number. At other times, you may just avoid a team because of injuries or other roster issues. And, of course, there are times you avoid a team because they are playing your favorite team or something like that. If you’re serious about betting, your favorite team can only be whoever you have your money on. In today’s game, I should be avoiding it because both the White Sox and Cardinals have cost me a lot of money in the past year, but I’m hopeful as they square off I can get some of it back. I mean, someone has to win, right? 

The White Sox are a pathetic excuse for a baseball team this season. They recently won three straight games, and guess what… it doubled their win total. How ridiculous is that? They went from three wins to six and now are on pace for 30 wins instead of the 24 they were on track for a week ago. They are not doing anything well, and frankly, I’m not sure that they are even using this time to really develop their players. Being part of a losing franchise and a team can negatively impact a lot of players as they tend to develop bad habits or get comfortable with losing. They are just 2-18 against the AL Central this season and it is arguably the weakest division in baseball. Oh, they play the Cardinals who aren’t in the AL Central, well, the Sox are just 1-7 against NL opponents. They have the worst run differential in baseball. Additionally, the Sox are just 3-8 in one-run games. This means that two thirds of their games have been decided by more than two runs, and just 50% of their wins (at the time of this writing). To give credit to one guy on the team at least, Erick Fredde has been very good for them. He won’t be here around the deadline. But, in his last two outings, he has allowed a total of three earned runs over 14.1 innings. Prior to that he only had one start where he allowed more than two earned runs. He’s pitching well and has a 1.07 WHIP. The bad news is that Cardinals hitters are batting .381 against him in 21 at-bats with three of the hits leaving the yard. 

Apr 17, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Erick Fedde (20) throws the ball in the first inning during game two of a double header against the Kansas City Royals at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Melissa Tamez-USA TODAY Sports

The Cardinals are better than the White Sox, but it is hard to not be (trust me, the Marlins and Rockies are trying). This club is hovering around the .500 mark and not doing much hitting despite the attempts. Last year the problem was the pitching staff. That has been addressed. Now the team is not hitting and Paul Goldschmidt’s lack of production is one of the bigger problems for them. Matt Carpenter has been out so that is another bat missing from the lineup. As I mentioned, they did fix up their team a bit with additions in the offseason to the rotation. So far, Lance Lynn looks like the guy that was dominant with the Rangers and White Sox. He hasn’t gone too deep into games but he only has allowed more than three earned runs in one game this year. He only has one quality start, and is basically going just five innings in each game. White Sox hitters have hit Lynn well, batting almost .300 against him. 

I don’t have a ton of confidence in either pitcher despite their recent form. I do think this game is likely to go over the total, but with the White Sox and Cardinals offenses, it is hard to envision either one going over. The choice here has to be to take the Cardinals through five innings to lead by at least a run (Cardinals -0.5). Maybe the White Sox pounce on Lynn and Fedde changes the history of poor performance against Cardinals hitters. But, I think this is probably a Cardinals spot. Back them through five. 

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