Brewers Will Trounce Marlins In Series Finale

Brewers vs. Marlins, 6:40 ET

I have put out exactly two games this season that I liked significantly more than the other games. The first one was the Royals against the Brewers. That game saw me lose three bets with one swing of the bat in the top of the ninth as the Brewers hit a three run homer. The other one came two days ago as the Braves and Padres combined to score 11 runs in a game with a line of 7.5. I still maintain this one wasn't really a bad read, the bullpen allowed five runs in the seventh and eighth inning so we went from cashing to losing in the blink of an eye. It happens, but still hurts. I'll go back to a game I like, but won't be putting multiple units on - the Brewers vs. Marlins.

I've covered the Brewers quite a bit this season because I tend to look for teams that are undervalued in the market. This team is one of those. The Brewers were somewhat written off due to changes that they made in the offseason. There was no big splash of an acquisition, and they traded away their Ace while losing their manager to their division rivals. The team has responded by playing really good baseball over first month and a half. Their hitting has been surprisingly great to this point, and the pitching staff has been effective enough. The team is batting over .250 and scoring over five runs per game. They have a strong On-Base and Slugging Percentage, showing that they are getting walks and squaring up the bat on the ball. The pitching staff does need to step up a bit as they are pitching to a 4.02 ERA as a club. Freddy Peralta is taking the ball and he has a 4.17 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP. Peralta is arguably the best starter on the staff, and while he is not really an Ace, he has been effective. This has been a tough month for him as he has allowed 11 earned runs over 16 innings. He is on the road for his seventh start of the season and has been fine, with the exception of allowing home runs. He has allowed five homers and 15 earned runs over 32.2 innings. Marlins hitters are just 9-for-41 against Peralta in their careers.

Marlins lefty Jesus Luzardo pitches at loanDepot Park in Miami. (Alie Skowronski/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

The Marlins are one of the worst teams in baseball and have thrown in the towel on the season already by trading away their best hitter. I understand the team was probably giving up after their Ace, Sandy Alcantara, was announced out for the season. But, again, this is a similar path that the Brewers had to go through this year, and their team responded well. The Marlins have not. The team has improved their hitting, but the thing is that they were so bad, there was almost no where to go but up. I also have to imagine that the Marlins aren't done trading away their team. They have a couple more guys that could make a pretty solid impact on other clubs. For whatever reason, put them all together and they are terrible. Their pitching staff hasn't been very reliable either, the club has a 4.90 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Today they send out Jesus Luzardo to the hill. I think Luzardo could be one of the better pitchers in baseball if he found the right coach. He has solid stuff, but it doesn't seem like he can put it altogether. This is just his eighth start of the season, but it will be his sixth at home where he has been better than in his two road starts. He has put together two really nice starts this month after returning from injury. In the two outings, he has allowed just two earned runs over 11.2 innings. Brewers hitters are tending to get the best of Luzardo, hitting 11-for-37 against him.

I think this should be a nice win for the Brewers today. Peralta is a solid pitcher and has a nice history against the Marlins. I will give it to Miami, they are playing better baseball than they used to, but they still aren't exactly contenders. Milwaukee is kind of average right now, so maybe the over actually makes the most sense.To be honest, the run line is my favorite bet though, if we do get an over, it will be due to the Brewers offense, and I do think they have the pitching edge.

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